Telecom Sector Risk Report

Strengths & Weaknesses

  • Significant barriers for newcomers
  • Substantial value creation and robust profit margins
  • The ongoing rise in data usage and the digital transformation of the economy serve as enduring support
  • Minimal vulnerability to economic fluctuations in developed markets
  • Innovative technologies and evolving consumer preferences present avenues for growth
  • Established and fiercely competitive markets in developed economies
  • Sector requiring significant capital investment
  • Substantial debt levels concentrated among a handful of major US and European companies in the industry
  • Increased vulnerability to economic fluctuations in emerging markets

Sector Overview

What to watch ?

  • Expanding fiber networks in regions with reduced consumption levels.
  • Growth in the NewSpace sector, where companies leverage low Earth orbit satellites to deliver telecommunications services.
  • The increasing adoption of 5G technology in developed markets.
  • Fluctuating interest rates and financing environments that may pose difficulties for highly leveraged companies.

The expansion of fiber networks is gaining momentum, driven by substantial investments aimed at improving broadband access across numerous countries. Simultaneously, the global deployment of 5G technology is progressing, with connections reaching half of the world’s population by the end of 2023. In China, 5G coverage has reached an impressive 95%, while the United States follows closely at 90%. However, Europe lags behind with only 70% coverage. Emerging markets present significant growth potential, with coverage at just 10% in Latin America and the Middle East and North Africa, and 20% in the Asia-Pacific region excluding China. By 2028, 5G is projected to become the leading subscription type, representing a tremendous opportunity for the industry. Additionally, global data consumption is anticipated to rise from 136 exabytes (EB) per month to 174 EB per month in 2024, further benefiting the sector. In recent years, we have also seen the rise of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite providers, which are steadily establishing themselves as internet service providers, particularly in emerging markets. In the long term, they may pose a competitive threat to traditional telecom companies.

Despite facing higher interest rates, many companies in the sector have been forced to cut back on capital expenditures, which could negatively impact their long-term growth. In the midst of a significant purchasing power crisis, numerous firms have refrained from raising prices, even as their own costs have surged due to rising energy prices and wages. Nevertheless, telecom companies managed to achieve an EBITDA margin of 31% in 2023.

Subsectors

– Landline and mobile telecommunications. encompass both landline and mobile services, with major companies dominating both areas; however, this trend is not as prevalent in emerging markets.
– Consumer and business telecommunications. telecommunications landscape serves both consumers and businesses, with certain niche providers catering specifically to corporate requirements.
– Cable companies
 Satellite telecommunications including innovations from New Space, are also a vital component of the industry.
– Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO) specialize in promoting mobile services while leasing network capacity from established operators.